Prabowo’s Personality (3)
The national campaign team (BPN) of Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno (Prabowo-Sandi) are busy convincing the public that Prabowo was not angry in the fourth presidential debate. But the damage is done. Many believe Prabowo had lost his temper.
Jokowi, Prabowo & the Military
President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo benefited from the blunder his opponent Prabowo Subianto made in the fourth presidential debate. Prabowo said that Indonesia’s military was weak. He questioned the strength of the TNI’s primary weapons system (alutsista) and accused Jokowi’s military advisers of providing the President with incorrect briefs. Prabowo asked Jokowi to be wary of sycophants. So Prabowo openly criticized the TNI, and Jokowi was quick to note that.
CSIS Survey Highlights
Indonesia’s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published the result of their most recent electability survey. We’ve discussed a portion of the data from the said survey. In this article we will go through a few more of their data.
Delegitimizing 2019
The hardline Muslim group Forum Umat Islam (FUI) led by Al Khaththath, who is also a former leader of the disbanded Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI), plans to stage a rally in front of the General Election Commission (KPU) office on Sunday (March 31)—the day the KPU will hold the fourth presidential debate. This would be the second held in front of the KPU this month. Al Khaththath and his FUI are big supporters of the presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Sandiaga Uno (Prabowo-Sandi). It is likely that the founder of PAN Amien Rais, who is also a part of the Prabowo-Sandi national campaign team, would attend the said rally considering his presence in FUI’s previous rally.
The Trend Continues
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released the results of their electability survey. The CSIS found that the incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was still leading the race by a significant margin. The CSIS, moreover, found that Jokowi was leading in all regions of the country except Sumatera.
Jokowi, Prabowo & Political Taglines (2)
President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo have asked his supporters to go to the polling stations on the election day wearing a white shirt. Jokowi’s running mate KH Ma’ruf Amin also gave the same instruction. Meanwhile, the GP Ansor, the youth-wing organization of the Nadhlatul Ulama (NU), launched the movement called “Rabu Putih” (White Wednesday).
Political Outlook: Analyzing Survey Results
Supporters of Prabowo Subianto and Sandiaga Uno (Prabowo-Sandi) do not believe the survey results that have mostly shown the commanding lead of Joko “Jokowi Widodo and his running mate KH Ma’ruf Amin (Jokowi-Amin). They cite inaccuracy of the pollsters as evident in Jakarta’s 2017 gubernatorial election. But if one want were to compare the surveys of today with the result of the surveys conducted back in 2014 and 2009, would it be reasonable to distrust the surveys of today?
Jokowi, Prabowo & Political Taglines
Apart from financial support, stamina, and militancy, creativity would be another key to boost electability in the rest three weeks of public rallies. Prabowo Subianto’s supporters may have realized that early on in the game, and so they came up with the tagline “2019 Ganti Presiden”. It is a simple yet aggressive tagline perfect for the politics of the opposition. How about the incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo?
The Latest Electability Figures
Unlike Litbang Kompas, two more polling agencies have pointed to the commanding lead of incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo over his challenger Prabowo Subianto. Both pollsters found the gap between the two candidates at around 20%. One polling agency even found that Jokowi is leading by a significant margin in all regions, except Sumatera.
Less Political Parties in the DPR?
Two more polling agencies have released the result of their electability survey on political parties. According to Charta Politika, only 7 out of the 16 political parties have the electability to pass the 4% parliamentary threshold. Meanwhile, Vox Populi found only 6 political parties would pass the threshold. Will we see less political parties seated in the House of Representatives (DPR) after the 2019 legislative election?