Category: Politics

PKB’s Future

The future of PKB, the largest Islamic party in Indonesia, is undoubtedly one of the hottest topics being discussed in relation to political consolidation after 2024 elections. The current administration of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and the next administration of Prabowo-Gibran will likely want to keep PKB in the ruling coalition regardless of what happened during the election. On the other hand, there are those who expect PKB to join forces with PDIP to become the new opposition instead.

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Prabowo-Jokowi Dynamics

Sufmi Dasco, vice chairman of Prabowo Subianto’s Gerindra Party, said on Tuesday (Feb 21) that ‘power sharing’ within Prabowo-Gibran’s coalition has been agreed. Sufmi, one of trusted aides of Prabowo, unfortunately, provided no further detail about who’s getting what, including whether Gibran Rakabuming, son of outgoing president Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo, will get substantial role in the administration.

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Post-Election Dispute & Conflict of Interest Issue

The real count conducted by the General Election Commission (KPU) as per this morning with 74.39 percent data collected is still pointing to Prabowo-Gibran’s lead with 58.88 percent, pretty much similar to the quick count from various pollsters. Once the KPU completes its real count and announces the official result of 2024 presidential election, it is likely that the two losing candidates, Ganjar-Mahfud and Anies-Muhaimin, will challenge the result by filing a post-election lawsuit at the Constitutional Court (MK). Let’s talk a bit about this upcoming legal battle.

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The Losing Candidates’ Maneuver: Political Battle at DPR?

The real count conducted by the General Election Commission (KPU) as per this morning (Feb. 21) with 73.33 percent data collected is pointing to Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s lead with 58.55 percent, pretty much similar to quick count from various pollsters. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD only got 24.15 percent and 16.91 percent, respectively. Ganjar, a losing presidential candidate based on the quick count and real count, has not conceded yet and he even came up with the idea of pushing the House of Representatives (DPR) to use its right of inquiry (locally called as Hak Angket). Anies, another losing presidential candidate, couldn’t agree more with Ganjar’s idea. The question is whether their respective coalition of political parties will remain united at the DPR to push for the motion of using inquiry rights. Can they win a political battle at the DPR to pass the motion?

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Cabinet Reshuffle

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is scheduled to take the oath of two new ministers this morning (Feb. 21). The two new ministers who will be sworn in by the President are Air Chief Marshal (ret) Hadi Tjahjanto and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY).

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PDIP Remains Less Proactive

It seems like the ruling party PDIP is not learning from their defeat in the 2024 presidential election. The Party has not been proactive in approaching the other political parties to join their cause of becoming the opposition to the next administration of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is the eldest son of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

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Megawati’s Upcoming Meeting with Paloh

The ruling party PDIP gave a positive response to a potential meeting between its matriarch, Megawati Soekarnoputri, and media mogul Surya Paloh, who is the chairman of Nasdem Party. Earlier, Nasdem revealed a plan of a meeting between Paloh and Megawati soon in the near future. The meeting, if it happens, is worth monitoring in relation to a question on the position of both parties after 2024 election and toward the next administration.

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2024 Election Result: Anomaly?

Ganjar Pranowo, a presidential candidate from a coalition led by the ruling party PDIP, still cannot believe that he ended up at the bottom with such a small amount of votes based on quick count from seven pollsters. Ganjar, who is also former governor of Central Java for two periods, considered it as an anomaly because the quick count from the same pollsters also pointed to PDIP’s victory in the legislative election.

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2024 Election Result (4): Lalaland

The party at Prabowo-Gibran camp started Wednesday (Feb 14) afternoon with Prabowo’s long speech. This morning, data from the General Election Commission (KPU) pointed to 55.97% votes for Prabowo-Gibran from 39.33% votes counted nationwide. This is a landslide victory because Prabowo win in almost all provinces, bigger than Jokowi’s victories in 2014 and 2019, among others thanks to huge support from Jokowi and his supporters who believe that Prabowo’s victory is like a ‘third term for Jokowi’.

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Political Dynamics to Watch: Jokowi-Prabowo Relationship

Apart from the dynamics between political parties, it’s truly worth monitoring the relationship dynamics between President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, who based on quick count from all polling agencies wins 2024 race and will become his successor. The dynamics between these two key figures will affect the remaining eight months of Jokowi’s administration and the next administration under Prabowo.

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Anyone Ready to become the Next Opposition?

Quick count from all polling agencies, including Litbang Kompas, the research division of Kompas (the largest newspaper in Indonesia), pointed to a landslide victory for Prabowo-Gibran in one round. Ganjar-Mahfud and Anies-Muhaimin, however, have not yet conceded, waiting for the real count from the General Election Commission (KPU). Moreover, Ganjar-Mahfud believes that there is a structured, massive, and systematic fraud in the election.

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