A More Attractive Oil & Gas Regime?
The government has just auctioned off eight conventional oil and gas blocks last week. In a bid to attract investors, amidst worldwide cutting of capital expenditures due to downfall of oil, Jokowi administration offers a more attractive package to investors. Those called themselves ‘nationalists’ might soon accuse the government of leaning too much to liberal approach. But, do we have other alternatives?
Metals: Supply Cuts & The Rally
Nickel retreated to US$10190 per ton in London Metal Exchange (LME) Friday, Sept 11, but recorded 3.5% gain in the week. Dr Copper and aluminium also gained 1.4% each, while tin advanced 2.3%. Supply cuts from major miners contributed to the weekly gains, but sustainability of the rally still subject to real improvements in China’s iron and steel industry.
Crude Oil Outlook & Coal Shares
Unlike Goldman Sachs with its ‘doomsday scenario’ of US$20 per barrel of crude oil, EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average US$54 per barrel this year and US$59 per barrel in 2016. EIA based its projection on likely declining crude oil output in the US to 8.8 million barrels per day next year from 9.2 million barrels/day this year.
CPO, El Nino & Plantation Shares
The benchmark November contracts of crude palm oil (CPO) retreated RM25 to RM2132 per ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, ending days of rally. In Jakarta’s physical market, however, weak rupiah continues to support the commodity. Where is El Nino in the equation?
Rally in Metal-Related Stocks
Freeport McMoRan Inc, parent of PT Freeport Indonesia, opened higher by 3.3% in New York Thursday as copper continued its rally. That means Freeport has gained 39% from its recent bottom. Vale SA, parent of Vale Indonesia (INCO), also advanced 4% to make a total 20% gain from recent bottom.
CPO Rally Continues, Shares Retreat
KPB Nusantara, the joint marketing office of state plantations, sold five out of six CPO packages (7500 tons) auctioned off Thursday (Sept 10) at Rp6580 per Kg (VAT 10% included), advanced 1% from Wednesday on falling rupiah against USD and higher prices in the futures market.
PGN & FSRU Lampung
Floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) Lampung of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Tbk is now a major policy discussion in the country’s elites and dragged down shares of PGAS in recent months. Lawmakers pointed to monthly losses of US$7.5 million due to poor operations of the FSRU.
Coal Price Flattens, Shares?
Unlike crude oil, which has been moving with huge range in the past few weeks, coal tends to flattening. At least that’s what we see in the reference price of Indonesian thermal coal since May 2015. This might have prompted rallies in the shares of coal producers listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) recently.
Rally Continues for CPO & Plantation Shares
Plantation shares surged in the region Wednesday (Sept 9) to tracking crude palm oil (CPO), whose benchmark November 2015 contracts edged up RM22 to RM2114 per ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. January 2016 contracts also advanced RM30 to RM2228 per ton.
CPO Rally & Plantation Shares
The benchmark November contracts of crude palm oil (CPO) gained significantly by 2% (RM42) to RM2090 per ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Tuesday (Sept 9) on some factors. In Jakarta’s physical market, the commodity also gained significantly to tracking further depreciation of rupiah.