2026 Outlook (1)

As 2026 draws closer, it’s time to start thinking about outlook for the new year. What important factors would shape Indonesian politics and economy? Will we see bigger scale protests and riots like what we’ve seen in late August and early September this year?

Patrick Walujo’s Fiber Optic Gambit

Patrick Sugito Walujo’s latest strategic move should not be read merely as a corporate partnership. His decision to build an “open fiber” infrastructure company alongside Indosat, Northstar Group, and Arsari Group—controlled by Hashim Djojohadikusumo—signals a deeper political recalibration in Indonesia’s digital future.

Soho Global vs Tempo Scan

Shares of Soho Global Health (SOHO) ended lower by 1.52% to Rp1,295 on Monday (Dec 22). At the last quoted price, SOHO was worth Rp16.44 trillion, significantly bigger than Tempo Scan Pacific (TSPC, Rp12.45 trillion). Really?

Smaller banks test some big names

The Financial Services Authority (OJK) plans to cap minimum equity of banks to above Rp6 trillion, forcing owners of around 30 small banks to either inject more capital or merge. The devil, of course, is in the detail, including timeline of when these small banks should meet the minimum equity.

Reality check on 5G development

Indonesia loves to declare itself a rising digital power. Government speeches glorify artificial intelligence, cloud computing, smart cities, and the “digital golden era.” But rhetoric does not build infrastructure — policy does. And on that front, Indonesia has failed. The country’s embarrassingly slow 5G rollout is not a technological problem. It is a political and regulatory failure that exposes how unserious Indonesia truly is about its digital ambitions.

Nickel production cut: Really?

Energy & mineral resources ministry (ESDM) targets nickel ore production of 250 million wet metric tons (WMT) in 2025, down significantly from nickel production approval granted in 2025 (based on work and budget plan/RKAB) at 379 million WMT. Really?

When Crypto Meets the Coming AI Reckoning

By the end of 2025, the crypto market once again reminded us that hype cycles always have consequences. Indonesia’s crypto transactions plunged sharply toward year-end, mirroring global sell-offs and a severe correction in Bitcoin prices. Regulators recorded a steep drop in trading volume, signaling that investors are stepping away. But this is not just another crypto winter story. It is part of a broader anxiety gripping global markets: fears that the AI bubble may not just slow down—it may burst.

Irrationality continues

Shares of Bumi Resources (BUMI), the largest coal producer by volume, advanced 1.2% to Rp344 this morning to make a market capitalization of Rp127.7 trillion. While it is valued less than three times equity, the stock is now traded with PE multiple 190, among the most expensive in the market.

Low-Wage Reality

I was inside the hall during the Indonesia Economic Prospects (IEP) forum when the latest labor data was unveiled. The presentation was clinical, the graphs were neat — but the truth they exposed was deeply uncomfortable: Indonesia is increasingly becoming a low-wage nation, and yet we continue to congratulate ourselves for creating “jobs.”

The Dumai-Sei Mangke gas pipeline project

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has signed a contract for engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) work package for the construction of the Dumai – Sei Mangke (Dusem) section for gas transmission pipeline, a major national strategic project.

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