Indonesia’s Diesel Policy Is About More Than Energy

Indonesia’s plan to halt private-sector diesel imports beginning in 2026 while tightening reliance on domestic supply and accelerating biodiesel expansion has been promoted as a patriotic project: securing energy sovereignty, reducing import bills, and elevating national industry. It is a bold narrative—but energy policy is rarely just technical. It is political economy in motion, and this policy is quietly rearranging who gains leverage and who loses it.

2026 Outlook (5): Free Meal

The National Nutrition Agency (BGN) is preparing to enter the second year of the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program. While the initiative has delivered tangible benefits, it has also presented significant challenges for the Prabowo-Gibran administration considering various issues that emerged throughout 2025. As preparations begin for the coming year, attention now turns to how the program, the largest from the administration, will evolve in 2026.

CUAN & Singaraja Acquisition

Shares of small coal miner and contractor PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN) Tbk, controlled by Prajogo Pangestu, surged 6% to Rp2,361 this morning on the company’s plan to acquire smaller coal miner Singaraja Putra (SINI). At the last quoted price, CUAN is now worth nearly twice ‘market value’ of Bumi Resources (BUMI), the largest coal miner.

2026 Outlook (4): Shortcuts to shortfall

State budget 2025 might see a widening deficit to 2.78% GDP from initial target of 2.53% due to downfall of revenues from both tax and non-tax collections. In order to prevent the deficit of breaching the 3% GDP cap, Prabowo administration has taken some policies deemed shortcuts by many.

Feliz Navidad!

As the holiday season is right around the corner, we would like to extend our warmest wishes for a joyful Christmas to those who celebrate, and a restful weekend ahead to all our valued subscribers. May this festive season bring us happiness and peace.

PDIP’s Stand Against Papua Palm Oil

At a time when many political actors appear eager to align themselves with power, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has unexpectedly stepped into a role this country desperately needs: a functioning opposition. Its firm rejection of the government’s plan to push large-scale palm oil expansion into Papua is more than a policy disagreement. It is a political confrontation with a development model that continues to treat Papua as empty land rather than a living society.

Hankyu Hanshin bets more on Indonesian properties

Japan’s Hankyu Hansin Properties Corp. has officially announced its plan to acquire Deli Park Mall, a prominent large-scale commercial facility in Medan, North Sumatra province next month. Hankyu Hanshin will acquire Deli Park Mall through its subsidiary PT DPM Assets Indonesia (DPMAI).

2026 Outlook (3)

Indonesian government sets an ambitious growth of 14.2% in investments next year despite downfall of foreign direct investment (FDI) this year. So, the government relies on stronger growth of domestic investments, including from sovereign wealth fund Danantara.

2026 Outlook (2)

The government has set a more ambitious growth target next year, relying on higher investment and steady export. Global economy, as usual, will dictate the movement of commodities even if Indonesia try to influence pricing by slashing output and export.

The Ridiculous Pollux Stocks

Pollux Property (POLL) launched initial public offering in July 2018 at Rp615 per share with PT UOB Kay Hian Sekuritas as lead underwriter. That time, we already thought the stock was overvalued. 

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