Market Response to Prabowo-Gibran

In February 2014, Lana Soelistianingsih, economist at Samuel Aset Manajemen, predicted rupiah would strengthen significantly to Rp10,000 per USD if Jokowi, who was tipped potential president candidate, was elected president. Back then, rupiah was traded at Rp11,790 per US dollar. Now, after two terms in office, rupiah is traded at Rp15,656, depreciated 33%.

Further corrections of CUAN & BYAN

Coal miner Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN), owned by Prajogo Pangestu, and Bayan Resources (BYAN)—controlled by Dato Low Tuck Kwong, are two of the most expensive stocks in the market. CUAN has fallen significantly (around 50%) from peak, but might see further corrections.

Volume Supports Vale’s Full Year

Nickel producer Vale Indonesia (INCO) booked net profit of US$274.3 million in 2023, grew 37% year on year (y/y), supported by higher gain on recognition of fair value of derivative asset and finance income. Margins were squeezed significantly in the fourth quarter due to falling price of nickel.

Revisiting Gudang Garam

Shares of Cigarette maker Gudang Garam (GGRM) gained 3.77% to Rp20,650 on Thursday (February 15), to market capitalization of Rp39.73 trillion. While its peer, HM Sampoerna (HMSP) gained 4.57% to Rp915, to make market capitalization of Rp106.43 trillion. GGRM declined 0.7% so far this year, while HSMP gained 2.8%.

Bracing for slowdown

Indonesia booked trade surplus of US$2.02 billion in January 2024, dropped 48% from US$3.88 billion in the same month of 2022, smallest trade surplus since last July, as exports dropped deeper than imports. Shipments shrank 8.06 percent from a year earlier to an eight-month low of US$20.52 billion, the eighth straight month of decline, amid an economic slowdown in trading partners.

FY/23 Results: FASW & ARNA

Paper producer Fajar Surya Wisesa (FASW), which was linked to the family of Airlangga Hartarto (coordinating minister for the economy, chairman of Golkar Party), but then majority acquired by Siam Cement Group (Thailand), suffered loss of Rp626 billion in 2023, against profit of Rp120 billion in 2022, as sales fell 29.3% year on year (y/y) to Rp7.72 trillion.

Post Election Market Outlook

Quick count from some polling agencies pointed to a landslide victory for Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, followed by Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD. Real count from the General Election Commission (KPU) with nearly 40% votes counted also pointed to a victory of Prabowo-Gibran. 

PKPU for TOYS

The doll manufacturing company, PT Sunindo Adipersada Tbk (TOYS) only conducted an initial public offering or IPO in August 2020. At that time, even in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the company was able to attract public attention. Unfortunately, in just three years, the company has already faced a lawsuit from its creditors and is currently going through a PKPU period to restructure the company’s debt.

Indosat vs XL Axiata

Shares of telco firms Indosat (ISAT) and XL Axiata (EXCL), the second and third largest players behind Telkom (TLKM), ended higher by 3.16% and 1.3% respectively on Monday (Feb 12) as investors responded financial results for full year 2023. 

GOTO and Grab to Merge?

Rumor about merger of GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Grab lifted GOTO stock price by 2.38% to Rp86 on Monday (Feb 12), but still way below ‘target price’ set by some brokerage firms (some set at Rp196). 

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