Stuck at Five
Indonesia’s economy remains resilient amidst increasing global uncertainty, but very difficult to move above six percent and way below the dream of seven percent annual growth of Jokowi. Data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) shows that economic growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 was 5.11% year on year (y/y), an increase compared to growth in the previous quarter of 5.04% (y/y).
Revisting Lippo’s Bank Nationalnobu
Shares of Bank Nationalnobu, controlled by Lippo Group, lost 3.9% to Rp740 on Tuesday (May 7) following report that Korea-based insurance firm Hanwha Life acquired a 40% NOBU shares earlier this month. At current price, NOBU is valued at Rp5.48 trillion.
Will Avian recover to IPO price?
Back in April 2022 when paint manufacturer Avia Avian (AVIA) was traded at Rp790, we called it ‘overvalued’. Two years on, AVIA was traded at Rp520, representing 44% discount to the initial public offering (IPO) price few years back. The stock indeed ended higher by 6.12% on Monday (May 6) as the company continued the buyback program.
Weaker Results of Cement Manufacturers
Shares of state cement maker Semen Indonesia (SMGR) ended lower 2.32% to Rp4630 on Friday last week (May 3) as investors responded negatively the company’s performance in the first quarter (Q1) 2024. At the latest quoted price, SMGR was valued at Rp31.38 trillion, below equity (Rp48.3 trillion as of March 31, 2024) and traded with PE multiple 14.40.
Overcooked Coal Stocks: CUAN & BYAN
Coal miner Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN), owned by Prajogo Pangestu, and Bayan Resources (BYAN), controlled by Dato’ Low Tuck Kwong, are two of the most overcooked stocks in the coal sector. Shares of CUAN ended substantially lower by 7.6% last Friday (May 3) to Rp7,025, but this reflected PE multiple 41 on annualised earnings in the first quarter.
Valuation Gap: MNCN vs SCMA
Shares of Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN), controlled by businessman cum politician Hary Tanoesoedibyo, ended flat last Friday (May 3), while Surya Citra Media (SCMA), majority owned by Sariaatmadja family, closed higher by 3.27%. MNCN and SCMA are parents of four popular TV stations with over 60% combined market share, but came up with some contrasts in financials.
Digital banks: No exponential growth!
Shares of Bank Jago (ARTO), where technology company GOTO has substantial shareholding, ended higher by 2.43% on Friday (May 3) to make a market capitalisation of Rp28.94 trillion. AlloBank (BBHI), on the other hand, ended lower by 0.51% to make a market capitalization of Rp21.2 trillion. These digital banks have lost more than 80% their values from peak.
First Quarter Results: Indofood Group
Shares of consumer giant PT Indofood CBP Sukses Maker (ICBP), famous with its Indomie instant noodle, ended higher by 3.58% to Rp10,850 on Friday (May 3) even when the company’s net profit crashed 40.5% in the first quarter of 2024. Shares of parent company Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), on the other hand, closed flat at Rp6,225 trillion. The parent’s market value is not even half of the subsidiary.
Another overcooked Prajogo stock: Chandra Asri
Petrochemical firm Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA), owned by Prajogo Pangestu, recorded a loss of US$33.1 million in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, against US$8.57 million profit in the corresponding period of 2023. Yet the company is now worth Rp677 trillion, 14 times equity. Even most profitable companies like BCA and BRI are valued less than four times equity.
The overcooked Barito Renewables
Shares of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN), a holding company and part of the Barito Pacific Group owned by Prajogo Pangestu, surged by 7% to Rp9,875 on Thursday (May 2) to make a market capitalisation of Rp1,322 trillion, the largest on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), despite relatively flat performance in the first quarter.