Indonesia-India
Unlike with China, wherein Indonesia recorded trade deficit (non oil and gas) of US$11.4 billion in 2024 (surged from surplus of US$148 million in 2023), the country enjoyed a huge trade surplus with India. President Prabowo is scheduled to visit India next week, among others, to boost economic ties.
Illusory decline of poverty rate
It’s difficult to cheer the data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) about poverty rate, which is claimed declining of poverty rate from 9.03% in March 2024 to 8.57% by September 2024. Difficult, because the poverty line used is only US$1.2 per capita per day, almost half of Timor Leste.
Food self-sufficiency: Players to watch (1)
In a bid to meet President Prabowo Subianto’s obsession for self-sufficiency in food, deputy minister of agriculture Sudaryono, a politician from Prabowo’s Gerindra, said recently that a total to 160 companies will import 200,000 dairy cows this year as part of a target to import one million dairy cows by 2029.
External Trade: FY24 Results & Outlook (2)
Indonesia imported US$233.66 billion worth of goods in 2024, grew 5.31% from the previous year, wherein non oil and gas import from China surged by 15.2% to US$71.63 billion or 36% of total. Oil and gas, in general, remains a challenge given the enlarged deficit.
The rate cut & rupiah
Composite index of Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) ended higher by 1.77% on Wednesday (Jan 15), lifted by banking, property, and automotive shares. Market participants expected growth stimulus from the central bank’s surprise decision to cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points.
The ballooned deficit with China
Indonesia recorded trade surplus of US$31 billion in 2024, declined by 16% from the previous year (US$36.9 billion) because export grew slower (2.3%) than import (+5.31%). The country returned to big deficit in non oil and gas trading with China from a small surplus in 2023.
External Trade: FY24 Results & Outlook (1)
Indonesia’s export grew only 2.29% to US$264.7 billion in 2024, while import expanded 5.31% to US$233.7 billion. Export-import, which is third largest component behind household consumption and investments, provided limited impact to the GDP growth for 2024.
The inevitable budget revision (3)
The State Budget 2025 has just started, but it might only need a matter of few weeks to see a proposal to revise the budget to accommodate President Prabowo’s ambitious programs—-free meal, food estate, and three million homes—and finance expansion of bureaucracy from the central government to regional level administrations.
Will Unilever ever return to peak?
Shares of Unilever Indonesia (UNVR), market leader in home and personal care products, ended higher by 1.45% to Rp1,745 on Tuesday (Jan 14) as some investors responded positively the company’s decision to divest the ice cream business for Rp7 trillion.
Data center industry update
Shares of Solusi Sinergi Digital (WIFI), a company where President Prabowo’s brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo has minority ownership through Arsari Group, gained 24.47% on Tuesday (Jan 14) to make a market capitalization of Rp1.39 trillion.