Merdeka Copper + Tsingshan (2)

Shares of Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA), a company controlled by Saratoga Group, Provident Group, and Boy Garibaldi Thohir, advanced 0.39% to Rp2,550 on Tuesday (Feb 16) despite correction in gold prices. At this price, Merdeka Copper has market capitalization of Rp55.84 trillion or almost US$4 billion, substantially bigger than Adaro Energy (Rp38.7 trillion), which is also co-owned by Saratoga and Boy Thohir.

Toll road projects update

Some sections of two toll road projects in West Java, the most populous province in the country, are scheduled to enter commercial operation in the third or fourth quarter of the year. They are Section II (Cigombong-Cibadak) of Ciawi-Sukabumi (54 KM) toll road and three sections (31.6 KM) of Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan (Cisumdawu, 61 KM) toll road. 

Water infrastructure projects update

Despite the pandemic, President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo inaugurated the Tukul Dam in Pacitan, East Java province with Rp916 billion of investment early this week. The dam could supply 300 liters of water per second with the capacity to store 8.7 million cubic meters of water and irrigate 600 hectares of paddy fields.

The EV Disruption continues

IHS Markit forecasts global electric vehicle (EV) sales growth of 70% this year. In January, China EV sales already reached 158,000 units, skyrocketing 281.% year-on-year. In the same month, UK’s car registration pointed to EV’s market share of 13.7%, an increase of 2.3x from January 2020. 

Expecting More from Iron & Steel Industry

Indonesia recorded 47% jump in export value of iron and steel (HS 72) to US$10.85 billion last year, while import in the same category fell significantly by 35% to US$6.86 billion. So, Indonesia flipped the US$3 billion deficit in 2019 to US$4 billion surplus last year. We have every reason to expect bigger surplus this year.

Electricity Supply Hampers FeNi Haltim Project 

State-owned PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) plans to finalize a Ferronickel plant construction in Halmahera Timur (FeNi Haltim). The Plant will have the capacity of producing 13.500 TNi per year, and it supposedly is 98 percent complete. The only thing in its way is electricity. 

Outliers of 2020

Last year was a difficult year for everybody. Still, there are some outliers. Consumer goods giant Unilever Indonesia, for example, generated net profit of Rp7.16 trillion, down only by 3.1% from 2019, while sales revenues inched up 0.1%. Herbal producer Sido Muncul (SIDO) and ceramic producer Arwana Citramulia even reported substantially stronger performance last year.

Toll road projects update

Some sections of two toll road projects in West Java, the most populous province in the country, are scheduled to enter commercial operation in the third or fourth quarter of the year. They are Section II (Cigombong-Cibadak) of Ciawi-Sukabumi (54 KM) toll road and three sections (31.6 KM) of Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan (Cisumdawu, 61 KM) toll road. 

Key Takeaways from External Trade in 2020 & 2021 Outlook (2)

Pretty much as predicted, iron and steel (HS 72) was the best performing sector for Indonesia’s external trade in 2020. While export jumped by 47% to US$10.85 billion, import collapsed 34% to US$6.86 billion, resulting in trade surplus of nearly US$4 billion last year. In December alone, trade surplus in HS 72 reached US$478 million, thanks to higher average price of metals. 

Key Takeaways from External Trade in 2020 & 2021 Outlook (1)

Indonesia booked a record trade surplus of US$21.74 billion last year against deficit of US$3.59 billion in 2019. This, however, was attributable to 17.3% drop in import, while export declined by 2.6%. Still, this was not bad at all given downfall of global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

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