Smelter Projects Update
Indonesia now has 187 smelters (processing nickel, bauxite, iron, tin, copper, and gold) to supporting government’s program to developing the processing/refining industry and mineral-based industrial areas. The Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment (Kemenkomarves) said the government will continue the so-called ‘downstreaming’ program.
We have nickel, but Vietnam leapfrogs in EV race
Indonesian government proudly announced that the country will be become the first to launch VinFast’s new electric vehicle (EV). VinFast from Vietnam, as you know, has been listed on Nasdaq, New York with market capitalization of US$12.73 billion, slightly smaller than Indonesia’s largest automotive player Astra International.
Investment in hospitality industry
Investment in hospitality industry is set to grow faster. The economic crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic influenced the hospitality industry, causing some projects to be postponed. Gradual recovery of tourism, therefore, is the main driver to revitalization of this industry.
Steel industry outlook
Domestic demand of steel is now subject to continuation of the ambitious new capital city (IKN) Nusantara project because it is currently the single largest market. Outcome of February 14 election, accordingly, defines future demand of the commodity.
New investments in manufacturing
China’s tire manufacturer Zhongce Rubber Group Co. Ltd (ZC Rubber) has officially announced its plan to construct its second overseas tire factory in Indonesia. The company, in addition, aims to commence tire production at the new facility by the end of 2024. ZC Rubber is also evaluating the possibility of building another plant in Mexico.
The closure of Hung-A Tire
Tire is probably one of the most competitive industries in Indonesia. Almost all big names in the world of tire have local manufacturing presence. It was for a long period a three-way competition between Goodyear, Bridgestone, and Gajah Tunggal (using Yokohama Tire technology).
External trade in 2023 & outlook
So, Indonesia booked trade surplus of US$36.9 billion last year, dropped by 32% from 2022 due to 11.3% fall in export, while import declined by 6.55% only. Oil and gas sector recorded trade deficit of US$19.9 billion, dropped from US$24.42 billion thanks to substantial decline in import, while export was relatively stagnant.
EV: Point of no return
Some talk about slowdown of electric vehicle (EV) sales and downfall of EV startups. Others, however, believe correction in sales will be temporary, including early lifting of tax incentives in Germany recently. Falling raw material costs like lithium and nickel will likely cut EV battery costs significantly to boost sales instead.
Safety Concern on Nickel Smelter Projects
First of all, we can’t blame it all to the Chinese for series of accidents in nickel smelters and stainless steel factories, being the most recent killing 21 workers. Indonesian government and local partners of Chinese companies should be held accountable for poor planning and supervision of the projects.
Accident at Tsingshan Steel
An accident (explosion) at PT Indonesia Tsingshan Stainless Steel (ITSS), which killed 18 workers (including eight Chinese), is by far the worst in the sector. Some use this as an opportunity to revisiting ESG practices of Chinese investments in Indonesia, particularly in nickel-centered industrial areas of Morowali (Central Sulawesi), Konawe (Southeast Sulawesi), Obi Island (North Maluku), and Weda Bay (North Maluku).