Coal Journal: Correction of Coal Prices

Thermal coal retreated 3.15% to US$95.3 per ton for the week ended Sept 1st, 2017 because market participants responded negatively news from China. Other than the government’s decision to reinstate coal capacity of 92.3 million tons per annum in eastern Inner Mongolia, China’s six major power firms saw coal stocks increase gradually above 11 million tons at the end of August, SXCoal.com reported.

Commodities & Economic Outlook

Copper retreated from its recent high to close at US$6776 per ton on London Metal Exchange (LME) Friday (Sept 1). Still, this is the highest level seen in nearly three years. Nickel, meanwhile, returned to above US$12,000 per ton for the first time since early July 2015. This will help Indonesian economy for various reasons.

Growing Acquisitions in Resources Sector (2): Coal

State-owned electricity provider PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) heats up acquisition market for coal. The Company is finalizing acquisition of mines to support mine-mouth power plants in Jambi, South and Central Kalimantan, plus East Kalimantan. Outside PLN, we’ve seen significant increase in number of acquisition deals in coal sector since late last year.

Growing Acquisitions in Resources Sector (1): Palm Oil

The government might try to move away from resources/commodities as future growth engine, but the sector continues to attract foreign investments. Other than LG International, which decided to expand its palm oil processing capacity for the first time since 2012, ee noticed two major acquisitions in Indonesian plantation sector this month with combined consideration nearly US$200 million.

Freeport Deal to Watch

Shares of Freeport McMoRan ended higher by 1.57% to US$15.53 on Monday, the highest level in more than six months. Some might have anticipated a deal with Indonesian government regarding Grasberg mine in Papua, but both gold and copper also advanced in the commodities market. Gold, for example, was traded at US$1317 per ounce this morning, the highest level since October 2016. Copper also touched the highest level in more than two years.

Indonesia’s Mineral Policy & Changing Dynamics in China

Indonesia has quietly become second largest exporter of alumina to China. In the first seven months of 2017, Indonesia’s export skyrocketed to 381,277 tons, more than half of Australia, whose export to China fell significantly by 40% in the corresponding period.

More Supply from Indonesia, Nickel Rally?

PT Mulia Pacific Resources, subsidiary of IDX-listed PT Central Omega Resources Tbk (DKFT), has secured recommendation for export of low-grade nickel ores from ministry of energy & mineral resources recently. DKFT also awaits similar recommendation for its other subsidiary PT Itamatra Nusantara.

Coal Journal: Dynamics to Watch

Thermal coal was firm at US$98.35 per ton Thursday (Aug 24), representing nearly 50% gain year-on-year, despite reports about falling import from China last month. Speculation about supply-demand balance in China, India, US, and other major countries supports the commodity in the short-medium term.

Coal Outlook: China & Indonesia Factors

China government’s plan to halt construction of new coal-fired power plants to avoid avoid risks of overcapacity and promote a clean energy mix might have contributed to significant drop in thermal coal prices by 6% to US$90 per ton Tuesday (Aug 15). In the short-medium term, however, difficulties from Chinese miners to boost production will likely support the commodity.

Indo Tambangraya & The Land Cases

Indo Tambangraya (ITMG), coal producer controlled by Thailand’s Banpu Pcl, has been facing series of land compensation cases in the past few years. In the case of Yohanes Anceq et al, South Jakarta District Court ordered the company to pay Rp150 billion to the plaintiffs for material damages.

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