US-China tension lifted gold to its new high at US$1,874/Oz Wednesday, while silver jumped 3.7% to US$23.1/Oz. This is a good news for Indonesian economy. Crude palm oil (CPO), the main export commodity, also advanced to US$688/ton (CIF) in Rotterdam earlier on Tuesday, the highest level seen since late February.

Thermal coal, the largest export commodity for Indonesia, might still be under lot of pressures in the short-medium term due to the Covid-19 pandemic. After China, which imposed stricter import since late May, Coal India Limited introduced a new category of spot e-auction in a bid to replace 150 million tons of imports with domestic supply.

Natural rubber, key export commodity for Indonesia, advanced 1% to 154.4 yen/Kg in Tokyo this morning. That means the commodity has gained nearly 20% from its recent bottom, whilst still 33% below the same period last year. Improvement in the world manufacturing industry, including automotive market, might have contributed to the recovery.

The benchmark October contract of crude palm oil (CPO) advanced RM49 to RM2,663 per ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Monday (July 20). On Friday last week (July 17) in Rotterdam (Netherlands), CPO edged up to US$630 per ton (CIF) (forward contract for Oct-Dec) to represent 23.5% gain from its recent low. Improvement in palm oil price is essential for Indonesia’s economic recovery. 

Monday was among the best days in commodities during the pandemic. Almost all commodities exported by Indonesia advanced to their new highs. Copper, gauge for the world’s manufacturing industry, advanced to US$6,545 per ton to represent 41.7% gain from its recent low. Nickel, meanwhile, increased to US$13,482 per ton to represent 22% gain from its recent bottom.

The benchmark September contract of crude palm oil (CPO) advanced RM49 to RM2,408 per ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Wednesday (Jul 8). Earlier this week in Rotterdam (Netherlands), CPO edged up to US$630 per ton (CIF) to represent 23.5% gain from its recent low. Improvement in palm oil price is important for Indonesia’s economic recovery. 

Thermal coal has a special place in Indonesian economy because of its significant contribution to the State Budget’s non-tax revenues. Thermal coal is also the largest export commodity for the country. Unlike other commodities, however, thermal coal has only gained 7.5% from its recent low. Why?

Monday, Jul 6, was among the best days for Indonesian export commodities during the pandemic so far. Nickel advanced to US$13,242 per ton on LME to represent nearly 20% gain from its recent low. As the world’s largest exporter of nickel, Indonesia should be benefited from further improvements led by recovery of China’s manufacturing industry.

Improvement of commodities in international market is key to recovery of Indonesian economy. Crude palm oil (CPO), the second largest export commodity, has gained more than 15% from its recent low, but thermal coal, the largest economy, has not changed much even though crude oil already surged more than 100% from its bottom.

Indonesian reference coal price in June fell again to US$52.98 per metric ton (MT) compared to $61.11 last month. The lack of economic movement makes the coal demand market also experience a decline, especially from India and China, said the Ministry of Energy and...