State revenues from coal (royalty, and the planned export tax) in the first quarter of 2026 might decline significantly at the time of growing concerns about widened budget deficit (closer to the 3% GDP cap). Export volume (and revenues) will also be affected because price of thermal coal remains traded below the same period last year.

Nickel advanced 6.73% to US$18,785 Wednesday (Jan 14) on uncertainties surrounding approval of work and budget plan (RKAB) of Indonesian nickel miners this year. Shares of IDX-listed nickel miners, however, ended mixed that day.

President Prabowo Subianto inaugurated the integrated energy infrastructure of Refinery Development Master Plan (RDMP) Balikpapan in East Kalimantan province yesterday. While the new refinery will lead to lower import of fuel products, the country will remain heavily rely on imported crude oil.

Indonesian government’s plan to cut coal production by 24% to 600 million tons this year yet to lift international price of the commodity like what happened to nickel. Newcastle thermal coal was last traded at US$107.4 per ton, down 7.21% year-on-year. 

Nickel started the year well, gaining nearly 10% year-on-year on plan from Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, to cut its production significantly this year. Delay in approval of work and budget plan (RKAB) for some nickel miners might give a short-term support for the commodity.

Prabowo administration was slated to make a decision about construction start of coal-to-dimethyl ether (DME) projects this month. We don’t know whether a decision has been made, but given energy self-sufficiency ambition from President Prabowo, the long aspired project might eventually hit the ground.

Prime Energy Natuna Pte Ltd, member of Prime Group International, has acquired some oil and gas assets in Natuna, Riau Islands from UK-based Harbour Energy Plc for US$215 million. Who’s behind?