Indonesia thought it would benefit from production cap of thermal coal, but export revenues dropped 3.8% year-on-year in the first four months of the year instead. Indonesia, at least Prabowo administration, believes controlling export through Danantara will elevate the country’s bargaining power in coal market only to see China and India, two of the largest importing countries, do some substantial adjustments.

Nickel gained 0.8% to US$17,955 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) Tuesday (Jun 16) due to falling US dollar and tight supply from Indonesia’s production cut. The commodity gained 20.2% year-on-year, but provided asymmetric impact to nickel players in the country.

Bahlil Lahadalia, minister of energy & mineral resources, glorified his policy in cutting coal production behind the global price hike. Newcastle thermal coal is now traded around US$146.3 per ton, jumped 38% year-on-year, but Indonesia’s export revenues dropped 3.54% to US$10.14 billion in the first four months of the year.

Nickel ended substantially lower at US$18,575 per ton last Friday (Jun 5) despite reports about suspension of production at PT Weda Bay Nickel (WBN), the largest nickel ore miner in Indonesia, since late May. Softer near-term demand in China and growing nickel supply from the Philippines prevented further rally in the commodity.

The government’s plan to establish a National Mineral Exchange is being presented as a bold step toward economic sovereignty. The argument is simple: Indonesia is one of the world’s largest producers of nickel and other strategic minerals, yet prices are often discovered and traded through foreign exchanges in Singapore or elsewhere. Why should a resource-rich country remain a price taker?

President Prabowo Subianto has just issued Regulation (Perpres) No. 26/2026 about import of crude oil and fuel, which basically allows Lemigas, an public service agency (BLU) for oil and gas testing centre under ministry of energy & mineral resources (ESDM), to import the commodities alongside state oil and gas company Pertamina.

Brent crude oil declined further to US$97 per barrel this morning as the US and Iran moved closer to a deal, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Aljazeera.com reported that a high-level Iranian delegation is currently in Qatar to discuss the most sensitive issues that still present barriers to a deal to end the war.

Indonesia is the largest exporter of palm oil and thermal coal, no doubt. President Prabowo Subianto expects Indonesia as price maker for both commodities upon seeing ‘success’ in ‘controlling’ global nickel price.