Market

Shares of Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG), a palm oil producer controlled by Triputra Group (TP Rachmat’s family), ended substantially lower by 3.1% to Rp785 last Friday (Jan 17). Triputra, one of the most profitable plantation companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), is now traded way below market average.

Investors have been presented with some positive news in the past few days, which might eventually give them the January Effect. Israel-Hamas ceasefire started, housing starts and permits grew stronger in the US, Japan’s machinery orders hit a 9-month high, China reported stronger GDP growth in the fourth quarter, and IMF revised upward the global growth. 

Shares of Matahari Department Store (LPPF), a fashion retailer linked to Lippo Group, ended slightly lower by 1% to Rp1,510 on Friday (Jan 17). The stock collapsed 93% from its peak in mid 2016.

Unlike with China, wherein Indonesia recorded trade deficit (non oil and gas) of US$11.4 billion in 2024 (surged from surplus of US$148 million in 2023), the country enjoyed a huge trade surplus with India. President Prabowo is scheduled to visit India next week, among others, to boost economic ties.

It’s difficult to cheer the data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) about poverty rate, which is claimed declining of poverty rate from 9.03% in March 2024 to 8.57% by September 2024. Difficult, because the poverty line used is only US$1.2 per capita per day, almost half of Timor Leste. 

In a bid to meet President Prabowo Subianto’s obsession for self-sufficiency in food, deputy minister of agriculture Sudaryono, a politician from Prabowo’s Gerindra, said recently that a total to 160 companies will import 200,000 dairy cows this year as part of a target to import one million dairy cows by 2029. 

Indonesia imported US$233.66 billion worth of goods in 2024, grew 5.31% from the previous year, wherein non oil and gas import from China surged by 15.2% to US$71.63 billion or 36% of total. Oil and gas, in general, remains a challenge given the enlarged deficit. 

Composite index of Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) ended higher by 1.77% on Wednesday (Jan 15), lifted by banking, property, and automotive shares. Market participants expected growth stimulus from the central bank’s surprise decision to cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points. 

Indonesia recorded trade surplus of US$31 billion in 2024, declined by 16% from the previous year (US$36.9 billion) because export grew slower (2.3%) than import (+5.31%). The country returned to big deficit in non oil and gas trading with China from a small surplus in 2023. 

Indonesia’s export grew only 2.29% to US$264.7 billion in 2024, while import expanded 5.31% to US$233.7 billion. Export-import, which is third largest component behind household consumption and investments, provided limited impact to the GDP growth for 2024.