Softened palm oil
Palm oil and derivatives enjoyed nearly 28% growth in export to US$34.36 billion last year thanks to higher volume and average price of both crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO). How about this year?
Pressures on coal-related industries
PT Hasnur International Shipping Tbk (HAIS), a coal logistic and transportation company, booked net profit of Rp87.1 billion last year, dropped significantly by 28% from 2024 on lower sales revenues and higher interest expenses.
Coal production cut: Gain or pain?
Newcastle thermal coal inched up 0.52% to US$116.7 per ton last Friday (Feb 13), reflecting 13.6% gain year-on-year. Indonesian government’s plan to curt coal production, and, accordingly, export might have contributed to the recent rally, but mid-long term outlook of the commodity remains unchanged.
Nickel retreats
Nickel soared close to US$19,000 per ton in mid January to respond Indonesian government’s plan to cut work plan and budget (RKAB) of nickel miners, but has since retreated to as low as US$16,889 this morning.
Nickel: Cut in plan, not supply (2)
Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI) estimated actual nickel ore production of 265 million tons, way below the approved work plan and budget (RKAB) of 379 million WMT. The country, accordingly, imported 15.84 million WMT of ores, mostly from the Philippines. That means total demand from nickel smelters was around 280 million WMT.
A growing policy uncertainty
Hashim Djojohadikusumo, younger brother of President Prabowo, said on Wednesday that the President was so mad with the collapse of IDX composite index (IHSG) following decisions from global institutions like MSCI and Moody’s. On Monday and Tuesday, the president met national business leaders, including those heavily influencing the index. IHSG recovered almost 2% Wednesday with the return of foreign investors.
Weda Bay Nickel: An outlier?
Eramet (France), partner shareholder in PT Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) with Tsingshan (China) and Aneka Tambang (ANTM), told investors on Wednesday (Feb 11) that Indonesian authorities have only approved nickel ore production quota of 12 million WMT this year, dropped 62.5% from last year’s initial volume granted and 71.4% below the revised plan.
Nickel: Cut in plan, not supply
Ministry of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) has finally set nickel ore production quota between 260 million and 270 million WMT this year, which will be in the range of last year’s actual production.
REEs
The government has recently identified eight mining blocks with significant rare earth elements (REE) potential while planning to launch two research projects to develop processing technology.
Fuel imports and the problem of policy-driven shortages
Fuel shortages at several Shell-branded gas stations have reignited an old but unresolved question in downstream energy sector: is the country truly committed to competition, or does stability still trump market fairness?