Category: Commodities

Thermal coal regained grounds to US$209 per ton early this week, but lost 11.5% year-on-year. We anticipate further correction of Indonesia’s export because thermal coal is the largest export commodity, contributing nearly US$55 billion, an increase of 67.5% from 2021. In January 2023, export of thermal coal already declined 8.2% from December 2022.

President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo complained about lack of domestic production of compound fertilizer (NPK) while State budget for subsidizing natural gas continues to increase. He shouldn’t just stopped there. The president should immediately act to speed up the stalled major gas projects in the country.

Shares of coal miners are still experiencing a decline in price, inline with decline in coal price. During January 2023, coal price fell 32.75% to US$262 per ton even though it still represents 24.47% gain year on year. The end of coal bonanza?

Nickel moved closer to US$30,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Monday (Jan 31) as the Philippines, the world’s second-largest supplier of nickel ore, plans to follow Indonesia, currently the world’s largest producer of processed nickel, not entirely banning export of nickel ores, but imposing levies.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) has just released full year 2022 financials, including operational data at PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), one of the world’s largest producers of copper and gold. Based on operational data, PT Freeport Indonesia should have recorded sales revenue of US$9.25 billion, an increase of 13.7% from 2021, thanks mainly to higher sales volume.

Crude palm oil (CPO) has returned to US$1,000 per ton (CIF) in Rotterdam, but this price reflected 25% decline from the same period last year due to a combination of worries on demand and relatively high output in the second half of 2022.

Coal has been the largest export commodity in the past decade. Next year onwards, however, nickel and its downstream products, including stainless steel and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)—-precursor for EV battery, might...

Cita Mineral Investindo (CITA), bauxite miner and co-owner of Indonesia’s first smelter grade alumina (SGA), acquired PT Kalimantan Aluminum Industry (KAI), subsidiary of Adaro Minerals Indonesia (ADMR). That means Harita Group, one of the country’s largest bauxite and nickel producers, and Glencore International Plc, one of the world’s largest mineral players, will have direct and indirect minority shareholding in the aluminium smelter being developed by Adaro in North Kalimantan province.

President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo said export ban on bauxite will be implemented in June 2023.  Given the country’s position in the world of aluminium, this policy might not be challenged by other countries like nickel. As to whether it will attract more investments in smelter grade alumina (SGA) like what happened in nickel, time will tell. 

We have seen fast growing number of nickel trading companies in the past few years alongside massive investment in domestic smelting capacities. Some big groups, including Indika Energy (INDY), have even entered the nickel ore trading business. There are some notable traders we identified recently.

Nickel advanced 5.4% to US$30,660 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) Wednesday (Dec 7), the highest level since early May 2022. Other than the usual supply-demand and macroeconomic dynamics, reports about strong sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe and China might have contributed to the recent rally. 

Newcastle coal futures, the benchmark for the top consuming region of Asia, moved towards the US$400 per ton mark, more than 150% above last year’s level, on prospects of continued robust demand and tight supplies, Tradingeconomics.com reported.