China reported additional 143 cases of Coronavirus Covid-19 this morning, same with the number announced 24 hours earlier. Number of new casualties, meanwhile, reached 30, down slightly from a day earlier. South Korea, in the meantime, reported additional 196 cases and seven deaths. Italy hit a new daily record of 769 new cases and 41 deaths.
World Health Organization (WHO) yet to rease its Situation Report No. 46, but our preliminary data pointed to additional deaths of 71 outside China in on Thursday, more than twice of inside China. The casualties came from Italy (41), Iran (15), South Korea (7), USA (3), France (3), United Kingdom (1), and Iraq (1).
As you can see in the below table we composed from Situation Reports issued by WHO (the latest was No. 45 as of March 5), number of new cases in China has steadily declined since March 1st. Experts in China predicted areas outside Hubei will report zero cases in the coming days, while in Hubei by the end of this month. This is a good news.
The problem, as you can see in the table, cases outside China surpassed those inside China since February 26, 2020. Worse, they grew exponentially from 459 new cases on Feb 26 to 2,098 on March 5 (bear in mind this is not inclusive of cases reported on March 5). Number of new deaths outside China has also surged from 10 on Feb 26 to 53 on March 5 (again exclusive of new deaths reported on March 5).
The worst yet to come. Actual cases in USA, Japan, and Iran are believed substantially higher than those officially reported due to different treatments of testings. In the past few hours, USA reported significant increase, including new cases in Colorado, Texas, and Maryland. Washington State and Californa were areas reported with majority of cases in the country, but more to come unfortunately.
Populous nations like India, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan might have just started the epidemic. By far, we haven’t heard of positive cases in Russia and Turkey. African continent is also a concern, especially after South Africa has just reported its first case, while Algeria reported faster growth in the past few hours.
The concern is not going away anytime soon, reflected in correction of major equity markets worldwide Thursday and Friday. This morning all major stock markets in Asia suffered corrections, including Shanghai composite index. While economic activities might return to normal with falling new cases and deaths in China, the country is now struggling to contain the imported new cases.
It is also too early to judge as to whether outbreak outside China will send the world economy to a deeper correction or whether declining cases in China can prevent the world from a recession. China’s manufacturing activities might resume, but with outbreak in importing countries like USA, Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Southeast Asia?
DISCLAIMER: NO POSITION IN STOCKS MENTIONED IN THIS ARTICLE
