Developing Asia will maintain strong but moderating growth over 2019 and 2020, as supportive domestic demand counteracts an environment of global trade tensions, Asian Development Bank (ADB) reported Thursday (July 18).
The Fund maintains growth forecasts for developing Asia at 5.7% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2020—unchanged from its April forecast. These growth rates are slightly down from developing Asia’s 5.9% growth in 2018.
Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taipei, China, and the regional growth outlook has been revised down from 6.2% to 6.1% in 2019 and maintained at that rate in 2020.
Deepening trade tension between the China and US remains the largest downside risk to this outlook, despite an apparent truce in late June that could allow trade negotiations between the two countries to resume.
The growth outlook for East Asia in 2019 has been revised down to 5.65 because of slower than expected activity in the Republic of Korea. The subregion’s growth outlook of 5.5% for 2020 is unchanged from April.
Growth for the subregion’ largest economy, China, is also unchanged, with forecasts of 6.3% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020, as policy support offsets softening growth in domestic and external demand.
