Going through names of petitioners, who managed to convince seven out of eight Constitutional Court judges to close down BPMigas, people would come up with various theories about their motives. Government officers’ responses might also trigger more theories.
We believe there is no single motive to disband BPMigas. Some of petitioners believe disbanding BPMigas would end US domant position in the oil and gas sector. But, others in the group were aware the theory is just too weak. US companies like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Hess, or European companies like BP, Total, etc have been operated, and dominant, way before BPMigas was established.
Some petitioners, by virtue of their relationships with Pertamina, either as consultants or advisors, expected disbanding BPMigas would eventually return most of its powers to Pertamina. Other petitioners, however, were aware that separation of regulatory regime and operation shall be maintained.
Why so many Islamic figures and organizations? “It could be just a coincidence, relationship of the leaders. I don’t think they waged something philosophical or ideological,” one senior Islamic figure commented.
Why people like Rizal Ramli and Marwan Batubara decided to ‘join forces’? “I think they enter into the game with different goals. Some people might enter the game for retaliations, jealousy, etc.”
What the government did since the filing of the petition in March 2012? Looks like that the government did nothing significant to prevent that (closing down BPMigas) from happening.
“Some, including people at energy and mineral resources ministry, might see this ruling a ‘blessing in disguise’, especially if they felt powerless when BPMigas was there.”
It is not a secret that BPMigas and the ministry were in conflicts, including in the selection of leaders, selection of ‘winners’ of oil and gas block tenders, picking the winners of farm-in of existing oil and gas producing assets, selection of rig providers, FPSOs, etc.
“They might now say, “Thank You to Court” for giving us all of these extraordinary powers. Now we can make business. You can’t blame those who believe that Energy Ministry somehow expected this would happen, because we haven’t seen the ministry tried to defend the agency.”
But, that won’t be forever, right?
“Still, you can make a lot of things even in one month controlling BPMigas. One year, you will sign thousands of contracts. Imagine, how much you can get.”
“I believe, despite this is dangerous for the State (exposed to contract disputes), this situation might be kept until after the 2014 election.”
“All of a sudden, thanks to the ruling, we’re in the golden years of Soeharto. We all know how many dubious contracts signed by Pertamina during the period and how many of them questioned or even investigated, but very few of them ended in court trial.”
Is it possible that the history repeats itself?
Not impossible. Most people believed the establishment of KPK would reduce corruption, but we all know corruption expanded substantially alongside the regional autonomy (decentralization of corruption). Hundreds of thousands cases, but KPK only has less than 100 investigators.
Most people, including those in the ruling elite, are betting on their ‘luck’ from disbanding of BPMigas. If they do it (corruption, collusion, and nepotism) right, they would escape any trial like those milking Pertamina and oil/gas investors during Soeharto years….
How about the petitioners? What they got? Well, some might start to claim success for political future in 2014, nomination as VP or President. Others might get nothing because they even have no idea why they were there in the first place.
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