The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.16 in August 2023 from a downwardly revised 0.07 in July, pointing to slower economic growth during the month. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August. Production-related indicators contributed -0.02 (vs +0.12 in July); the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category moved down to -0.08 from +0.03.
At the same time, the contribution of employment-related indicators was unchanged at -0.04 while the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category ticked up to -0.03 from -0.04. Meanwhile, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to -0.14 from -0.15. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to -0.04 from -0.01.