Author: yosefardi.com

Palm Oil Journal No 37/2014: Further Corrections

Opened higher, the benchmark August 2014 contracts of crude palm oil (CPO) retreated to red territory, down RM18 to RM2518 per ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Tuesday (May 20). The commodity lost more than 2% in two trading days, dragging down shares of most plantation companies listed in Jakarta, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur.

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Golkar’s Bad Luck in Presidential Races

After looking at the number of political parties and seats backing each pair, some analysts conclude that Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa are stronger than Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Jusuf Kalla. They might be right. But they may have forgotten that whoever had Golkar in their coalition ended as the loser in presidential election. It’s not something mystical; it’s statistical. Let’s talk a bit about it!

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Market Response to Presidential Race (2)

Composite index of Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) dropped significantly by 1.44% this morning, the biggest drop in months. In contrast to significant gain when Jokowi’s presidential nomination was announced, the index dropped substantially hours after Jokowi and Prabowo Subianto locked the race between them. Disappointed with Jokowi’s choice of VP candidate or Prabowo-Hatta-Bakrie’s partnership or both?

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Presidential Race Update (15)

This year’s presidential election has truly become quite the race. Judging from the way it started, we may see a tight battle for the votes. After declaring Prabowo and Hatta as a pair yesterday afternoon, the Gerindra-led coalition is preparing yet another declaration today to welcome Golkar and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) into their team. The addition of both parties will make Prabowo’s camp bigger than Jokowi’s. And even then, the Prabowo camp may grow even bigger should the Democratic Party decide to join in.

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Thugs and Indonesian Politics (Part II)

As previously mentioned by Harris Azhar, the coordinator of the Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (KontraS), there are no political parties in Indonesia that does not have any relationship with certain mass organizations that are either known as groups of street thugs or religious (radical) groups.

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Market Snapshots & Corporate Actions

Regional markets open mixed this morning with Nikkei 225 and Shanghai composite in positive territory, while KOSPI and All Ordinaries in red. Domestic factors, particularly speculation about outcome of July election, however, might dominate Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX0 today. Corporations in this report: Bukit Asam, Bank Panin Syariah, Alfamart, Perusahaan Gas Negara, and Gozco Plantations.

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Thugs and Indonesian Politics (Part I)

Just a few hours after Muhammad Jusuf Kalla (JK) was named as Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s running mate, interesting comments began swirling around in the Indonesian social media circle about JK’s relationship with Pemuda Pancasila, the oldest Indonesian paramilitary organization with a reputation for thuggery.

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Kung Fu Golkar VII

Golkar has never had the chance to directly rule the country ever since the fall of Soeharto. Internal politicking had always been their problem. But despite their constant failure at reclaiming victory, the party has always managed to be a part of the government. From the way things are going today, it seems that history might again repeat itself. No matter who wins the 2014 presidential election, Prabowo or Jokowi, Golkar will still be a part of the government. This is kung fu Golkar.

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Prabowo-Hatta & Prime Minister Bakrie (2)

“Hatta Rajasa & the National Mandate Party (PAN) gave me a blank cheque, but I wrote him a cheque of vice presidential nomination in return. Aburizal Bakrie also gave me a blank cheque, but I wrote him a cheque of ‘senior minister position’ in return. These are by no means political transactions,” Prabowo Subianto, president candidate, implicitly said in the past few days.

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Tower Bersama vs Sarana Menara in Q1

Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR) and Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG), two of the largest tower operators in Indonesia, reported almost exactly the same growth in revenues for the first quarter of 2014. With smaller total assets and debts, Sarana Menara reported stronger margins in the quarter.

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