Today, the two warring factions within the Golkar Party are expected to hold their third reconciliation meeting. Indeed a reconciliation between Agung Laksono’s Golkar and Aburizal “Ical” Bakrie’s Golkar remains an option, but given the current state of affairs, it is likely that the dispute will continue in courts. The question: who has more chance to win the legal battle? What are the implications?
Speaking to journalists on Monday (Jan. 12), Ical’s loyalist Fadel Muhammad revealed that his faction were still expecting a settlement through reconciliation. Fadel, however, admitted that Agung’s Golkar’s request to bring the party out of the opposition group—known as the Red-and-White coalition (KMP)—has hampered progress. Fadel said that Ical’s Golkar still wanted to remain in KMP.
Such was Fadel’s premise to declare a deadlock and announce the advance towards court battles. But Fadel did say that he hoped Ical and Agung could meet face-to-face and resolve their differences. It’s interesting that Agung Laksono’s supporter Leo Nababan also brought up a similar idea. Leo believe that a meeting between Ical and Agung would end the dispute.
Furthermore, Leo spoke of gentlemen’s agreement between Ical and Agung back in 2009, wherein Ical would allegedly support Agung to become Golkar Party’s Chairman for the period of 2014-2019. Leo, moreover, claimed to having a copy of said agreement.
According to Leo, Ical’s younger brother, Nirwan Bakrie, was also present when the agreement was signed. That said, there is no counter-statement yet coming from Ical’s Golkar confirming or denying this claim.
As we’ve said in previous articles, it is difficult to imagine the two warring factions would resolve their differences on matters such as the Party’s position in KMP. It’s even more difficult to imagine how the two warring factions could merge the two central executive boards (DPP) that now exists in Golkar as a result of the dualism of leadership. Should the two men reconcile, who shall be the party’s chairman? That’s one of the difficult questions that both Ical and Agung must answer.
This is why we are still of the opinion that the Golkar dispute will continue in courts—the plural is based on our expectations that there will be appeals against lower courts’ verdict. And knowing that Agung’s Golkar has a good relationship with the current administration, Agung’s Golkar may have the biggest chance to winning the legal battle. We all know the extent of executive power and we all know how politics can seep into the courts in this part of the world. Everything is still possible.
The problem here is that a legal battle takes time. A dispute in the District Court would take 30 days to process. Another attempt at resolution via the State Administrative Court (PTUN) would take 3 to 4 months. And let’s not forget the likelihood that the battle would continue in the High Court (PT) and later the Supreme Court (MA), the processes of which would take a few more months.
As a result of the distraction caused by the legal processes, the Golkar Party may lose its chance to participate in the regional elections this year in full force. This could be the set up for Golkar’s disappointing performance in 2019.
By Haryanto Suharman
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