Respondents of the latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia expect retail sales to increase in January 2024, as reflected by 3.7% (y/y) growth in the Real Sales Index (RSI) to a level of 216.0, driven by stronger retail sales of most commodity groups, particularly Clothing, Other Household Equipment as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco. On a monthly basis, however, retailers anticipate a 1.0% (mtm) sales contraction as demand normalizes after the recent Christmas and New Year festive period, coupled with weather factors. The contraction is expected to stem primarily from Automotive Fuels, followed by Clothing, Cultural and Recreational Goods as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco.
In December 2023, the RSI recorded 0.2% (yoy) growth to reach a level of 218.1, with retail sales impacted by higher sales of Automotive Fuels, Other Household Equipment as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco. On the other hand, monthly retail sales posted 4.9% (mtm) growth in response to a seasonal spike of demand during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, together with discount pricing strategies by retailers. Most commodity groups enjoyed stronger retail sales, led by Clothing, Cultural and Recreational Goods, as well as Food, Beverages, and Tobacco.
In terms of prices, respondents predict the Price Expectations Index (PEI) in March 2024 to reach 137.2 from 129.3 in February 2024 given rising prices during the holy fasting month of Ramadan. In contrast, respondents expect the PEI in June 2024 to retreat from 132.4 in May 2024 to 125.8 stemmed from smooth distribution and supply availability that leads to lower price.