The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note continued to fall to 2.8% in the first week of July, a level not seen since early June, as recession risks loom. The 2-year, 10-year part of the curve reinverted, a move that is usually seen as an indicator that a recession will follow in one-to-two years. The Fed is set to raise interest rates by either 50bps or 75bps this month, and investors worry that high borrowing costs could severely hurt economic growth. The focus this week will be on the FOMC minutes and the jobs report, which are expected to provide an update on the size of this month’s Fed rate hike and the labour market resilience.