Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasted the declining of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for developing Asia, from 5.9% in 2018 to 5.7% this year and 5.6% by 2020. But some observer sees Asia’ economic growth slowdown may be nearing an end, despite gloomy global forecasts and the threat of a United States (US) – China trade war.
“Risks remain tilted to the downside,” the Bank said, pointing to threat of a drawn-out or deteriorating trade conflict between the US and China, and uncertainties over US fiscal policy and Brexit.
It projected China, the world’ second-largest economy, would slow from 6.6% GDP growth in 2018 to 6.3% this year and 6.1% in 2020, due to restrictions on the housing market and shadow banking, along with sluggish exports. Southeast Asia could suffer the after-effects, although South Asia is expected to buck the trend, led by India.
In the Asia-Pacific region, China is seen slowing to a 6.3% expansion this year and 6.1% in 2020. Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, could cool from 1.0% GDP growth this year to just 0.5% in 2020.
Elsewhere, the ASEAN-5 comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are seen broadly stable, with 5.1% GDP growth this year rising to 5.2% in 2020. Indonesia alone, the bank estimates, will grow by 5.2% this year and 5.3% by 2020 triggered by strong investment and domestic demand.