In 2014, polling agencies found Joko “Jokowi” Widodo leading the race. Jokowi eventually defeated Prabowo Subianto with a 6.3% margin. Today, polling agencies have also found Jokowi leading the campaign, but this time he’s leading by a significant margin of 20%. Electability figures, however, do not capture the mood in the grassroot level. To assume that Jokowi would win the race because he’s way ahead of Prabowo in terms of electability may be careless.

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