Growing global trade tensions are weighing on non-energy commodity prices and are leading to downward revisions to 2019 price forecasts, the World Bank (WB) said. Oil prices are forecast to average US$74 a barrel over 2019, only marginally up from a projected average of US$72 a barrel in 2018. Prices for energy commodities – which include oil, natural gas, and coal — are forecast to average 33.3% higher in 2018 than the previous year but to broadly stabilize in 2019.
U.S. oil production growth is expected to be robust whereas oil production losses are expected in Iran and Venezuela. Global demand is expected to hold steady. Further escalation of trade restrictions between major economies could lead to large economic losses and cascading trade costs through global value chains. Slower growth in commodity consumption would likely dampen prices.