The outlook for sovereign creditworthiness in 2019 is stable, balancing the global economy’s continued, but slowing growth momentum against rising uncertainty over longer-term economic and financial stability, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report on Tuesday (Nov 6).
Although a number of risks could affect credit conditions over the next 12 to 18 months, three-quarters of the 138 sovereigns that Moody’s rates currently have a stable outlook and 15 hold a positive outlook. Nineteen sovereigns have a negative outlook, compared to 22 a year ago.
Moody’s expects G-20 growth to peak in 2018 at 3.3 percent before slowing to 2.9 percent in 2019. For advanced economies in the G-20, Moody’s believes growth will fall to 1.9 percent in 2019 from 2.3 percent in 2018, a pattern that is mirrored in key economies, including the US and Germany.
The picture in G-20 emerging markets is more varied: their growth in 2019 will be meaningfully slower in 2019 than in 2018, at around 4.6 percent against 5.0 percent in 2018.