Moody’s Investors Service says that Indonesia will require oil and gas investments of more than US$150 billion from now through 2025 to arrest falling upstream production, develop its gas import infrastructure, and expand its refining capacity to meet its growing level of petroleum demand.

“We also believe that an increasing proportion of investments will likely fall to Pertamina (Baa2 stable) — the state-owned oil and gas producer — and domestic producers as foreign investments moderate amid an evolving regulatory environment,” says Rachel Chua, a Moody’s Assistant Vice President and Analyst on Monday (Oct 1).

“Around 80% or $120 billion of the investments will need to be spent on upstream exploration and production, and the remaining $30 billion on the downstream oil and gas segment,” says Chua. “Absent a surge in investments, Moody’s expects Indonesia’s total oil and gas production to fall almost 20% by 2022 from 2017”.